陆洋:中巴经济走廊是印度的威胁吗?Is CPEC a Threat to India?

文|陆洋    盘古智库研究员、清华大学“一带一路”战略研究院博士后研究员

引子:

在中国共建“一带一路”规划的六大经济走廊中,最引人注目的就是中巴经济走廊。这条经济走廊北起中国喀什,南至巴基斯坦瓜达尔港,纵贯3000余公里,预计辐射数十亿人口,是共建“一带一路”的旗舰项目。巴基斯坦的基础设施发展也自此迎来了飞跃。

Of the six major economic corridors under the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, the brightest is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A flagship project under the Initiative, it extends more than 3,000 kilometers from China’s Kashgar to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, connecting a region inhabited by billions of people. The project’s launch was a major boon to Pakistan’s infrastructure development.

⎟中巴经济走廊意在地区稳定 CPEC Eyes Regional Stability

中巴两国政府都切实希望走廊的发展能够惠及巴基斯坦各地,改善巴基斯坦的经济状况,通过经济发展促进稳定和安全。

Both Chinese and Pakistan governments hope that the CPEC will benefit all of Pakistan and accelerate its economic growth, which would enhance the region’s stability and security.

在中方看来,安全与经济领域的合作密切相关,任何一边的改善都会对另一边产生促进作用。安全与经济几乎可以被视为是同一辆车上两个独立的轮子,且两个轮子都要转起来,才能将各方面的工作向前推进。中国认为,经济发展能改善巴基斯坦境内的安全状况,期望巴经济的振兴能够营造巴国内一定程度上的稳定局面,并由此实现该地区以及中国西部边陲的稳定。

China believes that security collaboration and economic cooperation are two closely-related fields and that any improvement in either will certainly boost the other. Security and economic development are like two wheels of a bicycle: Progress screeches to a halt if either wheel is lost. China believes that economic development can help improve Pakistan’s security and that the rejuvenation of its economy will not only enhance the stability of the South Asian country, but also promote stability throughout the region, including the western border of China.

 

中国能源建设集团天津电力建设公司承建的巴基斯坦萨希瓦尔燃煤电站

然而,中巴经济走廊的建设在战略上给予了印度极大的压力。在印度眼中,中国和巴基斯坦是印度的主要竞争对手,这两个对手从早期的仅仅局限于战略上的合作扩大到经济上的合作,彼此之间的联系将更加紧密,这是印度十分不愿意看到的。尤其是中巴经济走廊项目穿过有领土争议的巴控克什米尔地区,所以从一开始中巴经济走廊就被理解为是针对印度的,这也是印度始终对中国的“一带一路”倡议持怀疑态度的重要原因之一。

However, to India, the CPEC exerts massive strategic pressure. In the eyes of the Indian leaders, both China and Pakistan are its major rivals. They argue that the project shifts cooperation from strategic to economic cooperation, making the China-Pakistan bilateral relationship too tight. India is unwilling to accept such a situation. The most glaring problem to India is that the CPEC runs through the disputed area of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. For this reason, India considers the CPEC a threat, which has cast a cloud of persisting doubt over China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

同时,印度并不认可中国与周边国家发展关系的模式,认为这种模式主要是建立在密切经济联系、经济依赖的基础上的,中国的这种模式正在获得其他南亚国家的积极响应,从而降低了印度在南亚的影响力。今年5月 14至15日,“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛在北京举行,印度外交部发言人5月13日明确表示印度不会派高阶官员参加,这足以说明印度要参与到“一带一路”的合作中还需时日。

Furthermore, India doesn’t endorse China’s pattern of improving its relations with neighboring countries and claims that the trend is primarily rooted in creating closer economic contact to foster interdependence. However, China’s extended hand has received overwhelmingly positive feedback from many South Asian nations, which is reducing India’s influence in the region. On May 13, a day before the two-day Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation opened in Beijing, a spokesman from India’s Ministry of External Affairs explicitly declared that India wouldn’t send any high-ranking officials to attend the forum, so a long way is yet to go before India joins the Belt and Road Initiative.

中巴经济走廊是印度在“一带一路”问题上难以迈过的一道坎。对于中巴经济走廊的理解,中国和印度是两种视角。

Of every piece of the Belt and Road Initiative, the CPEC remains the most insurmountable obstacle for India. In fact, China and India have different understandings of the CPEC.

2017年5月15日,“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛圆桌峰会在北京雁栖湖国际会议中心举行

从中国的视角来看,对于中巴经济走廊规划,中国的出发点是超越中印巴关系本身的。事实上,根据中国的地区安全观,维持中巴之间的特殊战略关系,对抗或制衡印度的目的早已淡化, 而更多是出于一种更广泛的安全与利益考虑。前段时间,中国驻印度大使罗照辉在印度三军协会的演讲中明确表示了中国的立场,即中国在南亚处理关系时是把中国的利益放在首位,这个利益是中国的发展利益和稳定周边的全局利益。

From China’s perspective, the project transcends the triangular relationship between China, India and Pakistan and aims at enhancing regional development and stability by strengthening economic cooperation and connectivity, which in turn safeguards China’s interests.  In a recent speech at the United Service Institution of India, Chinese Ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui clarified that China would prioritize its national interests when handling foreign affairs concerning South Asia and make sure every effort is conducive to the development of China and the stability of the whole region.

其实,如果印度发展得更快更好,巴基斯坦国力的壮大并不一定导致印度的相对实力下降。换一个角度想,一个贫弱的、恐怖主义盛行的巴基斯坦对印度有利吗?如果经济发展的巴基斯坦,能够稳定住安全局势,降低跨境恐怖主义的威胁,也会安定印度后方,给印度的繁荣和发展带来更多益处。不幸的是,安全困境的溢出效应已经严重影响了印度对于印巴之间以及印中之间在经济上进一步合作的意愿。

But if India develops faster and healthier, a fast-growing Pakistan won’t necessarily diminish India’s strength. Conversely, would a poor, terrorism-plagued Pakistan be in India’s best interest? The economic development of Pakistan will boost regional stability and mitigate cross-border terrorism threats, which is only conducive to the prosperity and development of India. Unfortunately, spillover effect from the security dilemma has significantly decimated India’s willingness to engage in economic cooperation with Pakistan and China.

⎟当下之道在于增强了解 Enhancing Mutual Understanding Is Key

“一带一路”倡议已经发展成强调国际共识、共同发展和共同利益的宏伟规划。在“一带一路”的实际操作中,中国坚持的原则是,只要愿意参加,就开展合作,并不设置固定的名单。合作的前提是共商、共建、共享,因此“一带一路”不是中国的一家独唱,而是参与国的大合唱,需要各国的群策群力,通过协商寻求共识,共同开创机遇,谋求发展新动力。

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has already become a global plan with focus on international consensus, common development and shared benefits. Throughout implementation of the Initiative, China has never set a fixed list of participants and continuously adhered to the principle of remaining open to all who are willing to cooperate under the prerequisite of “extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits.” The Belt and Road Initiative is not just a Chinese program, but a symphony performed by every participant. All participating countries and regions are encouraged to pool their wisdom and seek consensus, opportunity and new development by working together.

在中国的周边,首要的是推动双边层面的互联互通,构建互利合作网络,并逐步加强多边的合作机制。中巴经济走廊就是中国在周边双边层面互联互通的一个尝试,在此基础上,未来有条件时可以扩大到多边层面。

For China’s neighbors, priority should be placed on promoting bilateral connectivity and building mutually beneficial cooperation networks with China and then gradually consolidating multilateral cooperation mechanisms. The CPEC can be considered a pilot project for bilateral connectivity between China and its neighbors, which is expected to expand to a multilateral cooperation projects when conditions are ripe.

2015年10月16日,亚洲政党丝绸之路专题会议在北京闭幕

在“一带一路”推进过程中,不论是中国还是参与合作的国家,保持开放的态度很重要。本着立足大局、互利共赢、共同发展的态度,“一带一路”在具体的项目上和制度建设上都有很多商讨的空间,一些棘手的难题,例如主权争议可以暂且搁置,在推进中寻求机遇缓解、化解和解决。印度想要发展,就要盘活周边,不能单靠自己,而要借助其他国家和国际机构的力量。

China as well as any other participating countries must maintain open attitudes toward cooperation under the Belt and Road. The principles of “seeing the big picture and seeking mutual benefits, win-win cooperation and common development” creates great space for stakeholders to discuss specific projects and cooperative mechanisms concerning the Belt and Road Initiative. To promote construction of the Belt and Road, involved parties should put disagreements such as territorial disputes on hold and seek opportunities that could end up solving them. To achieve optimal development, India must utilize the resources of other countries and international organizations rather than stubbornly relying only on its own power.

印度周围的南亚国家多是发展程度不如印度的小国,没有办法给印度的发展注入所需的资金、人才和技术等资源,反而要接受印度的援助。印度政府并非没有看到这个局限,因此才会有在“东向”政策基础上“东向行动”政策的发展。然而遗憾的是,印度的“东向”带有更多亚太战略平衡的色彩,面向的国家中并不包括中国。中国作为印度东边体量最大、最有活力经济体,印度是否能够也把中国放进自己的“东向”国家范畴呢?

Because most of its South Asian neighbors are even less developed than India, they lack the funds, talent and technologies to support their development and turn to India for support. Considering this disadvantage, the Indian government formulated and enacted the “Look East” policy. Unfortunately, the policy focuses on strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region and doesn’t consider China, the largest and most dynamic economy neighboring India.

“一带一路”倡议没有得到印度的响应,反映出双方在认知上的分歧,以及对于彼此仍然有限的了解。发展与周边国家的关系在中国的外交中正在变得越来越重要。在“一带一路”倡议推进过程中,中国事实上非常重视印度,不论是在以媒体为代表的公共舆论,还是学界的研究,都有许多对印度参与“一带一路”,以及印度对于“一带一路”认知的讨论。印度对于“一带一路”的冷淡和怀疑,以及对于参加高峰论坛的拒绝姿态,中国的舆论界确实相当失望。

India has yet to release a positive response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, signifying that differences and deficiencies in mutual understanding between the two countries remain. China is attaching greater and greater importance to its relations with neighboring countries. In fact, China would highly value India’s role in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative. Whether and how India will participate in the Initiative are popular topics in the Chinese media, public and academia. However, India’s indifference and doubt towards the Initiative and absence from the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation disappointed China.

印度和巴基斯坦边境上的换防仪式

然而,印度的态度也反映出无法否认的事实,即在“一带一路”推进过程中,中国要克服其他国家由地缘政治原因产生的种种猜忌和不信任。“一带一路”倡议如何落到实处,理念如何被其他国家接受和认同,这是中国面临的挑战之一。

Still, India’s attitude reflects an undeniable fact: China must overcome other countries’ distrust and doubt arising from geopolitical concerns to promote the Belt and Road Initiative. Pinpointing the best way to effectively implement the Initiative and have it be accepted by others remains a challenge for China.

印度民族国家建构的过程受到了印巴战争以及中印1962年边界战争的巨大影响,对这两个国家的安全顾虑成为了印度国家认同的一部分,而国家认同一旦形成,要改变并不容易。

Due to historical factors such as the India-Pakistan wars and the China-India border war of 1962, security concerns related to China and Pakistan have become part of national identity of India. Old mindsets are hard to change.

虽然南亚的互联互通和进一步开放有助于进一步增强印度的国力,但是印度的安全顾虑,以及不愿意在南亚屈居第二的自尊,使得印度对于中国的外交政策更多地从地缘政治和安全角度进行解读,在和中国的开放合作方面仍然犹豫不决,难以做出有建设性的尝试。

Despite how much the connectivity and further openness of South Asia has already enhanced India’s national strength, the country’s security concerns and national pride of its leaders make the government inclined to take diplomatic approaches towards China from geopolitical and security perspectives. India remains reluctant to cooperate with China, and such an attitude puts any constructive attempt in rough waters.

“一带一路”强调的丝路精神是:和平合作、开放包容、互学互鉴、互利共赢。从中国方面来说,印度的敏感性是中国需要考虑的,与印度打交道确实需要更多的包容和耐心。而印度也需要尝试从战略和安全以外的角度来理解中国的外交行为。中印之间只有增进对彼此的决策思维和逻辑的了解,才能够有效地缩小分歧。管控好的分歧并不可怕,在磨合中增强对双方立场和双方国家的了解,也是现阶段中印两国不得不选择的相处之道。

The core values of the Silk Road Spirit are “peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefits.” China needs to consider India’s concerns and show greater tolerance and patience when dealing with its South Asian neighbor, but India should try to look at China’s diplomatic moves from beyond strategic and security perspectives. China and India can effectively eliminate their differences only by enhancing mutual understanding on respective policy, philosophy and logic. Disputes can be controlled if addressed head on. For now, perhaps the only path forward for China and India is deepening understanding through greater interaction. ■

责任编辑: 张维芮